Aerial view of Accomplishment Creek and the Sagavanirktok River in the Brooks Range of Alaska.  Photo by D.L. Kane


Changes & Attributions Working Group

(Table Last Updated 15 February 2006)


CHAIRS
Marika Holland (Global Processes)
Jennifer Francis (Atmosphere)
Craig Lee (Ocean)
Max Holmes (Land)
Dan White (Impacts)



 
 
Land Impacts Bibl.
(Word; 33kb)
(pdf; 23kb)
Land Changes
Chair: Max Holmes
Variables
(link to annotated bibliographies, concise summaries)
STOCKS=BLUE, FLUXES=RED
Summary
Bibliography
Period of Record
Trend and Confidence
Observed
(figs, data)
Trend
Modeled 20th Cent.
(figs, data)
Trend
Modeled 21st Cent.
(figs, data)
Lead/Contact
(link to email)
River Q - Eurasian
River Q - North America
River Q - Hudson Bay
River Q Summary
(Word; 31kb)
(pdf; 16kb>
River Q Bibl.
(Word; 44kb)
(pdf; 30kb)
1936-2003
1975-2000
1964-2000
+ / VG

- / VG
+ +
+ +
 
+ + +
+ +
 
Max Holmes
Greenland
 
Icesheet Bibl. (pdf; 48kb)

Regional Bibl. (pdf; 44kb)

Future Estimates Bibl. (pdf; 42kb)
 
 
 
 
John Cassano
Glaciers
 
Glaciers Bibl.
(Word; 112kb)
(pdf; 194kb)
 
- / VG
 
 
 
Lakes/Wetlands
Lake & Wetland Summary
(Word; 41kb)
(pdf; 25kb)
Lakes Bibl.
(Word; 32kb)
(pdf; 15kb)
 
+- / VG
 
 
Larry Hinzman
Reservoirs  
Reservoir Bibl.
(Word; 34kb)
(pdf; 31kb)
 
+ / E
 
 
Daqing Yang
Permafrost Storage
Active Layer Thick. - Eurasia
Active Layer Thick. - N. America
Permafrost Summary
(Word; 29kb)
(pdf; 18kb)
Permafrost Bibl.
(Word; 30kb)
(pdf; 17kb)
 
1956-2000
1990-2002
 
+ / E
NT / E
+
+
Tingjun Zhang
Soil Moisture
Soil Moisture Summary
(Word; 267kb)
(pdf; 202kb)
Groundwater Bibl.
(Word; 40kb)
(pdf; 24kb)
 
 
 
-
Larry Hinzman
Impacts
      Societal
      Ecological
Land Impacts Summary
(Word; 2.97mb)
(pdf; 231kb)
 
 
 
 
Dan White
Lilian Alessa





Atmospheric Changes
Chair: Jennifer Francis
Variables
(link to annotated bibliographies, concise summaries)
STOCKS=BLUE, FLUXES=RED
Summary
Bibliography
Period of Record
Trend and Confidence
Observed
(figs, data)
Trend
Modeled 20th Cent.
(figs, data)
Trend
Modeled 21st Cent.
(figs, data)
Lead/Contact
(link to email)
Atmospheric Moisture Transport
 
Atmospheric Moisture Bibl. (60kb)

 

+ / VG
 
+
John Cassano
Atmospheric Storage
 
 

 

+ / VG
 
 
Jennifer Francis
Precipitation
    P over Land - N. America
    P over Land - Eurasia
    P over Ocean
 
Precip. Bibl. (24kb)
 
 
 
 
+
+
 
+
+ +
+ +
Jennifer Francis
Daqing Yang
Precipitation - Evaporation
    P-E over Land - N. America
    P-E over Land - Eurasia
    P-E over Ocean
 
 
 
 
 
+
+
 
 
+
+
+
Jennifer Francis
Daqing Yang
Impacts
      Societal
      Ecological
Atmosphere Impacts Summary
(Word; 118kb)
(pdf; 85kb)
 
 
 
 
 
Bill Gutowski





Ocean Changes
Chair: Craig Lee
Variables
(link to annotated bibliographies, concise summaries)
STOCKS=BLUE, FLUXES=RED
Summary
Bibliography
Period of Record
Trend and Confidence
Observed
(figs, data)
Trend
Modeled 20th Cent.
(figs, data)
Trend
Modeled 21st Cent.
(figs, data)
Lead/Contact
(link to email)
Arctic Ocean
 
 
 
 
+ -
+ +
Michael Steele
North Atlantic / Nordic Sea
 
 
 
+ / VG
 
+
Craig Lee
Labrador Sea
 
 
 
+ / G
 
+
 
Sea Ice - Area
Sea Ice - Volume
Sea Ice - First Year
Sea Ice Summary
(Word; 21kb)
(pdf; 113kb)
Sea Ice Bibl.
(Word; 28kb)
(pdf; 168kb)
1978-present
1960s-present
1978-present
- / E
- / G
+ / E
-
-
+
-
-
+
Marika Holland
Pacific Inflow
 
 
 
 
+
-
Rebecca Woodgate
Fram Strait Outflow - Liquid
 
 
 
 
+
+
Craig Lee
Fram Strait Outflow - Ice Volume
Fram Strait Outflow - Ice Area
Sea Ice Summary
(Word; 21kb)
(pdf; 113kb)
Sea Ice Bibl.
(Word; 28kb)
(pdf; 168kb)
 
+ / VG
 
-
-
-
-
Craig Lee
Canadian Arch. Outflow - Liquid
Canadian Arch. Outflow - Ice
 
Baffin Strait Bibl. (Word; 42kb)
(pdf; 39kb)
 
 
+
 
+
 
Kelly Falkner
Hudson Strait
Hudson Bay Summary
(Word; 38kb)
(pdf; 23kb)
Hudson Bay Bibl.
(Word; 34kb)
(pdf; 31kb)
 
 
 
 
Fiamma Straneo
Impacts
      Societal
      Ecological
Ocean Impacts Summary
(Word; 22kb)
(pdf; 12kb)
Ocean Impacts Bibliography
(Word; 23kb)
(pdf; 15kb)
 
 
 
 
Henry Huntington



What are the Objectives?  (Next Steps / Products)
  • Identify Key Variables (stocks and fluxes; see table above)
  • Review literature etc. and summarize what is known about changes in key variables
  • Consolidate data on key variables
  • Investigate relationships among key variables
  • Run GCMs with and without human forcing - then compare results to observed changes in Arctic (past ~100 years) ***one means of attribution (has ACIA already done this?)
  • Maybe something like Serreze et al 2000 +5 (potenially IPCC chapter)
Questions / Considerations:
  • What don't we know?
  • What evidence could falsify our conclusions?
  • Where should we deploy resources to reduce uncertainties
  • What statistical techniques do we use to test for significance?
      - Single variables and the ensemble of changes




Arctic CHAMP
Science Management Office

Contact Information
Role of the Arctic-CHAMP Science Management Office
Photo: Aerial view of Accomplishment Creek and the
     Sagavanirktok River in the Brooks Range of Alaska.  Photo by D.L. Kane